X-Account-Key: account3 X-UIDL: 1220565670.001 X-Mozilla-Status: 0001 X-Mozilla-Status2: 10000000 X-Mozilla-Keys: Received: from n24a.bullet.sp1.yahoo.com by genie.lightpatch.com id aa25195; 4 Sep 2008 11:29 PDT Comment: DomainKeys? See http://antispam.yahoo.com/domainkeys DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=lima; d=yahoogroups.com; b=LIVGgXHhcEvobsmGkC3RbdcHhdCGJz4CHQGO/UQ6lXHwzqsEFJNukOA6pz2LNGYLMW/eGL3tmPkF7OZuaFR3t3r2fJdCpWKhApFH0rCJIhLZPfu/F4SWvy7E6IKBv5CU; Received: from [69.147.65.147] by n24.bullet.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 04 Sep 2008 18:28:59 -0000 Received: from [66.218.69.1] by t10.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 04 Sep 2008 18:28:59 -0000 Received: from [66.218.67.93] by t1.bullet.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 04 Sep 2008 18:28:59 -0000 X-Yahoo-Newman-Id: 12111071-m84859 X-Sender: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com X-Apparently-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com X-Received: (qmail 31991 invoked from network); 4 Sep 2008 18:28:56 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (66.218.67.94) by m36.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 4 Sep 2008 18:28:56 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (HELO hrndva-omtalb.mail.rr.com) (71.74.56.124) by mta15.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 4 Sep 2008 18:28:56 -0000 X-Received: from nunswen0cecy73 ([72.184.17.31]) by hrndva-omta06.mail.rr.com with ESMTP id <20080904182854.TEYJ16835.hrndva-omta06.mail.rr.com@nunswen0cecy73>; Thu, 4 Sep 2008 18:28:54 +0000 To: Message-ID: <005601c90ebc$1564d520$402e7f60$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: AckOvBTA0/d5fOLwTqeIbr5DdMdu4g== Content-Language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.124 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0:0 From: Loren Morlan X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan Sender: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com; contact MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2008 14:28:52 -0400 Subject: [MT_E and I] USD/CAD, 9/4/08, FIBONACCI retracement objectively measures bull vs. bear in a trend X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Reply-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0057_01C90E9A.8E533520" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 8.0.169 [270.6.16/1651] ------=_NextPart_000_0057_01C90E9A.8E533520 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0058_01C90E9A.8E533520" ------=_NextPart_001_0058_01C90E9A.8E533520 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Although the monthly chart attached relates to longer term trend strength issues, the same retracement principles applies to all periods considered. Fibonacci retracement studies objectively measures the strength of bears and bulls in a trend. Devaluation of the US dollar vs. other major currencies and the CAD began in 2002. Four retracement periods are placed on this chart, the date of each fractal high is marked by red vertical lines. The first and longest Fibonacci period begins at the dollar fractal high on 1/1/02, and ends at the low on 11/1/07, and are blue lines on chart. Presently this study measures the bulls strength in a forth retracement since the high. There has not been a HA candle close above 23.6 in the current retracement period. John Hayden and other authors indicate a retracement to 23.6 indicates a very strong trend, in this instance, down. The study actually measures the strength of bulls to force higher prices and the bears selling into that rally. When the bulls are exhausted in the period the bears resume selling pressure on price. The three previous retracements were all less than 23.6 suggesting a very strong down trend. Three subsequent fractal highs are used to place retracement studies all to the most recent low on 11/1/07. Each of the subsequent studies place relevant Fibonacci levels on the chart in different colors. Each of these horizontal price lines may act as resistance to higher price. The most recent Fibonacci study began at the fractal high on 2/1/07, to the low and is spring green in color. The most recent HA candle high retraced to 61.8 (spring green line), which level was nearly the same as the longer term blue line 23.6 level mentioned previously. These two different period lines offer greater resistance to higher price. In this chart period there has been no current red HA candle and the issue of a completed retracement is undecided. Comments; 1. If the very strong down trend is still operative then the trader may expect the 23.6 and 61.8 resistance levels to be authoritative. 2. Weekly, daily and 4 hour periods offer insight to future price action. 3. Fibonacci retracement and extension studies objectively measures the strength of bears and bulls in all time periods. 4. Fibonacci retracement study projects expected, in this example, downside targets. In this regard the projected lower price is high, 2/1/07, to low 11/1/07, added, subtracted from the most recent high, 1.0776. (1.1815 + .9056 = 2.0931 - 1.0776 = 1.0155 projected target). Failure to met projection means probable loss of strength in the trend. Loren ------=_NextPart_001_0058_01C90E9A.8E533520 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Although the monthly chart attached relates to longer term trend strength issues, the same retracement principles applies to all periods considered.

 

Fibonacci retracement studies objectively measures the strength of bears and bulls in a trend.  Devaluation of the US dollar vs. other major currencies and the CAD began in 2002.

 

Four retracement periods  are placed on this chart, the date of each fractal high is marked by red vertical lines.  The first and longest Fibonacci period begins at the dollar fractal high on 1/1/02, and ends at the low on 11/1/07, and are blue lines on chart.  Presently  this study measures the bulls strength in a forth retracement since the high.  There has not been a HA candle close above 23.6 in the current retracement period.  John Hayden and other authors indicate a retracement to 23.6 indicates a very strong trend, in this instance, down.  The study actually measures the strength of bulls to force higher prices and the bears selling into that rally.  When the bulls are exhausted in the period the bears resume selling pressure on price.

 

The three previous retracements were all less than 23.6 suggesting a very strong down trend.

 

Three subsequent fractal highs are used to place retracement studies all to the most recent low on 11/1/07.  Each of the subsequent studies place relevant Fibonacci levels on the chart in different colors.  Each of these horizontal price lines may act as resistance to higher price.

 

The most recent Fibonacci study began at the fractal high on 2/1/07, to the low and is spring green in color.  The most recent HA candle high retraced to 61.8 (spring green line), which level was nearly the same as the longer term blue line 23.6 level mentioned previously.  These two different period lines offer greater resistance to higher price.  In this chart period there has been no current red HA candle and the issue of a completed retracement is undecided.

 

Comments;

 

1.        If the very strong down trend is still operative then the trader may expect the 23.6 and 61.8 resistance levels to be authoritative. 

2.       Weekly, daily and 4 hour periods offer insight to future price action.

3.       Fibonacci retracement and extension studies objectively measures the strength of bears and bulls in all time periods.

4.       Fibonacci retracement study projects expected, in this example, downside targets.  In this regard the projected lower price is  high, 2/1/07, to low 11/1/07, added,  subtracted from the most recent high, 1.0776. (1.1815 + .9056 = 2.0931 – 1.0776 = 1.0155 projected target).  Failure to met projection means probable loss of strength in the trend.

Loren

__._,_.___
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